ONN Weather Team’s Blog

Late Wednesday night, the National Hurricane Center upgraded Katia, which is located in the middle of the Atlantic Ocean, as a hurricane. The storm was moving west-northwestward quickly at 20mph. The forecast takes the storm up to a major hurricane (Category 3 or higher) by early this weekend. It is still too early to tell whether Katia will have any impact on the US. However, a cold front which will push through the Ohio Valley over Labor Day weekend may help turn Katia northward and perhaps northeast, away from the US. But it is simply too early to know if the front will have any impact.

As you can see, the forecast models still show a west-northwest track over the coming days, so the storm will have to be closely watched. IF it were to impact the US, it would not be until the middle or end of next week.

But there may be more problems which are developing a lot closer to home. The National Hurricane Center is closely monitoring an area of disturbed weather in the Gulf of Mexico. The computer models are insistent that a storm will develop here by the end of the week and possibly become a tropical storm or hurricane in a few days. If the storm does develop, it would be called "Lee". Even more concerning is the computer model guidance for this storm.

Notice the models show the storm drifting around the Gulf of Mexico for several days. This could bring extreme rainfall to the coast and well inland. The good news is, many of these areas actually are in desperate need of rain, but still quick heavy rains could lead to flash flooding.

There are even indications that this Gulf of Mexico storm could bring significant rain into the Ohio Valley or northeast US later next week. Certainly this is another storm that will have to be watched closely.

Stay tuned!

-Eric

(Graphics Courtesy: WeatherUndergound)

Eric Elwell

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