Poll: Blackwell, Petro In Tight GOP Governor Race

Undecided Voters Make Primary Outcome Unclear In Both Parties

POSTED: 1:49 pm EDT April 6, 2006

COLUMBUS -- Republicans Kenneth Blackwell and Jim Petro are in a close contest to represent the party in the governor's race, with more than a quarter of likely GOP voters undecided, a poll released Wednesday found.

Blackwell, the secretary of state, drew 39 percent support among likely Republican voters, and Petro, Ohio's attorney general, had 32 percent, the University of Akron Buckeye Poll found.

About 29 percent of likely GOP primary voters were undecided. The primary is May 2.

John Green, director of the university's Bliss Institute of Applied Politics, cautioned that the high number of undecided voters makes the outcome unclear with a month to go before the election.

"It suggests to us that it's a very competitive race," Green said.

The poll also found that only 15 percent of Ohio adults surveyed were aware of the details of a Blackwell-sponsored ballot issue in November that would limit the growth of taxes and government spending.

Overall, Ohioans generally favor less government spending and fewer tax increases, the poll found. However, Green said the lack of specific knowledge of Blackwell's proposal -- known as a tax-expenditure-limitation amendment, or TEL -- will increase the value of the pitch that both backers and opponents present to voters.

"What the opponents can do ... is raise questions about the details," Green said. "The 'no' (vote) has a built-in advantage the more complex it becomes. I think the message will be absolutely crucial for both sides."

Blackwell's plan would limit spending to the rates of inflation and population growth combined, or 3.5 percent a year, whichever was greater, and would require voter approval of tax increases. It would apply to state and local governments as well as school districts.

Blackwell will focus on a message of lower tax growth and spending, not the particulars of the plan, campaign spokesman Carlo LoParo said.

"Ken Blackwell's message is not T-E-L. Ken Blackwell's message is reining in government spending and spurring economic growth in Ohio," LoParo said.

Petro opposes Blackwell's plan. He says it will sap power from local governments and make it too difficult to pass school levies.

"Jim Petro has traveled around Ohio and met with community leaders ... and they've all shared their concerns about this amendment," Paduchik said.

On the Democratic side, the Akron poll found that U.S. Rep. Ted Strickland led former state Rep. Bryan Flannery 48 percent to 9 percent, with 43 percent undecided.

The telephone survey of was conducted from Feb. 20 through March 25. The survey on Blackwell's tax proposal of 1,075 Ohio adults had a margin of sampling error of plus or minus 3 percentage points.

Pollsters surveyed 380 people who identified themselves as likely Republican primary voters and 322 likely Democratic voters. The margin of error for the GOP results was plus or minus 5 percent, while the margin in the sample of Democrats was 6 percent, Green said.

Click here to read more about the poll results.
 
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